Property Rights and the Crisis of the Electric Grid

I am pleased to announce that the above-entitled article, written by (non-pseudonymous) me, has been published by The Objective Standard.

The article addresses what went wrong with the electric grid, and traces its problems to a critical failure to secure a vital asset in the earliest days of the industry. That failure, apparent even before Thomas Edison threw the switch to light up America's first commercial electric grid in Lower Manhattan in 1882, haunts the industry to this day. What is that vital asset? Why and how must it be secured? If it is, what kind of future becomes possible?

My answer is here.

A Tale of Two Grids

Airplanes are stuck on the tarmac, waiting to take off. The weather is clear and open, but the invisible traffic lanes in the sky are improbably congested. Planes wait for hours, passengers get frustrated, they call their congressmen, and the airlines get blamed.

An overloaded electric transmission line sags and touches a tree in Ohio. It shorts out and a cascade of overloaded lines radiates eastward, across into Canada, and down into New York City, blacking out everything in its path. First Energy, the utility in Ohio who owned the power line that triggered the blackout gets blamed. Fifty million people are without power.

What is the connection between millions of man-hours of air traffic delays and millions of people suffering power blackouts? The answer is an ossified grid.

The air traffic control system and the transmission grid are both stuck in the 1950s. Very little innovation or new investment has improved these systems, while the other parts of these industries, the airplanes and the power plants, have grown apace to keep up with demand that has doubled and re-doubled since then. As people travel more by air and use electricity ever more widely, the grids have became increasingly overburdened until breakdowns – massive delays and blackouts – are now commonplace.

A common element ties these two grids together, and it is not strictly government ownership. The air traffic control system does belong to the federal government; it is operated by the Federal Aviation Administration. However, the long distance transmission grid is largely owned and operated by private electric utilities. The common element is not government ownership as such, but government control. Both grids, whether nominally owned by the government or not, in all essential decisions are operated by the government. Both are effectively government-controlled and operated.

The air traffic control system is stuck with ancient technology. As recently as the 1990s (and possibly still true today), key systems such as the TRACON radar in Long Island that controls the majority of international traffic entering the Northeastern United States, still used vacuum tubes. The invisible air traffic lanes that get congested in clear skies are air traffic routes that were devised in the 1950s and never updated. Air traffic controllers operate as members of a surly union that went on strike in the 1980s and had to be fired.

Satellites using global-positioning satellite (GPS) technology that could permit air traffic to go anywhere, using the entire sky as its "road,” have not been tried. An integrated system that ties airplanes' onboard radars into a central grid, permitting planes to travel closer together, has not been tried.

Government ownership of the airports complicates the problem. Airports are not managed to efficiently optimize takeoffs and landings and to integrate the schedules of all of the airlines. This can be accomplished very simply, and without any form of centralized control, through pricing. If airports were operated by private owners, those owners could set fees for landing slots that bring supply and demand into equilibrium at every point in the day. High landing fees during peak times will ensure that airlines do not over-schedule flights. They will schedule as many flights as the airport can handle, and no more, with the market price for those slots guiding their decisions.

When the airlines were ostensibly deregulated in the late 1970s, only the owners and operators of the planes themselves were freed from government controls on the pricing of airfares and on the scheduling of their routes. The rest of the infrastructure that makes the airline industry work, including the air traffic control system and the airports, remained in the hands of government. The government operators of this vital infrastructure have not kept up with the growth of the deregulated airlines. The government run air traffic control system and the airports have ossified. Growing delays on the tarmac have been the inevitable result.

The power grid suffers from similar problems. Although the transmission grid remains nominally in private hands, every important decision concerning the operation of that grid is dictated by government officials. All important decisions of pricing, construction of new lines, and even the permissible level of profit, are dictated by government boards that require many years of expensive hearings for the utilities to make any significant changes. The expense of such bureaucratic sclerosis and the lack of the opportunity to make a free market profit – in other words, the lack of an incentive to innovate – have conspired to stall grid construction. As a result, expansion of the grid has not kept up with the growth in electricity demand. It also means technological ossification, as the grid fails to use modern computerized technologies to operate more efficiently.

The grid today operates largely as a mechanical system using 1950s-era technology. In the same manner that water flows downhill, electricity travels solely down the path of least resistance. New technologies, such as solid state electronic control circuits to regulate power flows, are very seldom employed on the grid. These technologies can make the grid work more efficiently, driving more power through existing lines, more reliably, preventing problems in one area from cascading into large-scale blackouts. Such control circuits would have prevented a transmission line failure in Ohio from cascading until it became the 2003 Northeast Blackout.

A private owner competing to maximize profits does not run his business in such a lazy, slipshod manner as today’s utilities. The utilities in Ohio and elsewhere are legal monopolies, insulated from competition by law. For every one of their major operating decisions, they must ask permission from a dis-interested bureaucrat.

Like slaves, the regulated utility monopolies move slowly and at every opportunity look to shirk responsibility.

When slaves were freed, they could use their minds to pursue their self-interest. For the first time, they could aggressively and eagerly advance their own lives in a manner that they alone determined.

The only answer to air traffic delays and power blackouts is a similar abolition. It is the abolition of the shackles of government control. It is the freeing of the human mind to creatively come up with better ways of managing the grids. Government should simply get out of the business of air traffic control and the operation of the airports. Let private, profit-seeking individuals enter this business and watch them aggressively build out and innovate this infrastructure to keep up with the growth of the airlines.

Government should also simply get out of the business of managing the electric transmission grid. Recognize the true ownership right of the utilities that today ostensibly own the grid, and then get out of the way. Profit-seeking individuals will build new lines, run existing lines more efficiently with new technology, and the whole grid will more reliably and cheaply transmit power. Blackouts will not completely go away, just like airplane crashes and delays will not completely end. Human errors and natural disasters will happen, but human ingenuity will be free for the first time to make the system work at its best in reality.

Comments on the Electric Utility “Deregulation” Mess

Recently, I received the following (edited) question regarding the choice of electricity supplier in the state of New Jersey. The question is applicable for anyone who has a “choice” in any of the states that “deregulated” their electric utilities in the 1990s. These include California, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Texas. The details of the deregulation plans vary by state, but all of them, to varying degrees, offer or did offer customers a choice of electricity supplier. Most of these states also mandated that utilities in their state had to divest all or a portion of their power plants. My answer is applicable to all of these states and, in important respects, to the entire country. PSEG is Public Service Enterprise Group, which provides electricity to parts of New Jersey.

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Hi GB,

I hope this email finds you well. I've lately become consumed with what I pay PSEG so I requested alternative electric energy supplier options (they pretty much have a monopoly on distribution).

Of the list of 19, just 2 offer residential service to my zip code. My question to you is: does the residential customer really have any choices? It seems all of the options are for businesses. (With the amount of research I've done on this topic today, this may turn out to be an article in the newsletter I publish! But I need to check my facts with you first.)

To their credit, PSEG does offer many comprehensive programs, tips, and arrangements to "help pay", lower, and generally help make paying them less of a burden, however, I can't help feeling like I'm just not getting the choices I'm supposed to get in a dereg'd marketplace.

Any thoughts you can share with me on this will help alleviate my frustrations... thanks!

A Reader

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My answer:

Dear Reader,

As for the question in your email, residential customers don’t really get much of a choice much of the time. I suspect that any deal you are offered probably doesn’t present much savings over PSEG.

As for why, it is quite complicated to answer. The simplest answer is that the electric industry was never really deregulated, so deregulation can’t be blamed for what you are observing with regard to residential choice of electricity supplier.

Consider that “deregulation” in the case of utilities involved something good (allowing entities other than utilities to build more power plants) and quite a lot that was not good and “re-regulatory” in nature. The good thing, allowing others to build power plants, should lower prices over time because newer and more efficient plants will get built. However, that is true only if both utilities and non-utilities are truly free to build plants. Being truly free would mean that they can: (1) charge whatever they want for power produced from those plants, (2) locate them in the best locations, wherever they can buy land, and (3) build the plants using whatever they think is the best technology.

None of those things are true today. I’ll briefly address each of them:

(1) Price Maximums = Expensive Power. Price maximums are set by federal and regional regulators in the wholesale power market. Capped prices mean capped profits and a reduced desire for companies to build power plants. If fewer new power plants get built, prices will remain high because electricity continues to be made with old, inefficient plants.

(2) You Can’t Build It Here. Local zoning rules, land use restrictions, environmental rules, and the “NIMBY” reaction of local politicians to a power plant in their local area make it extremely difficult to locate new plants in the areas where they are most urgently needed, such as near urban areas where the customers are. “NIMBY” stands for “Not In My Back Yard.”

(3) Using the Best Technology Is Forbidden. The cheapest technology for a new “base-load” power plant, i.e., one that is designed to run 24/7, 365 days a year, is nuclear. Base load plants are the work-horse plants on the grid. They supply most of the electricity that you use. Unfortunately, nuclear energy in America has been made prohibitively expensive through unnecessary safety rules imposed after Three Mile Island. No one has died from exposure to nuclear radiation in that accident or any other accident anywhere in the modern, Western industrialized world (which the Communist government responsible for Chernobyl was not; no Western engineer would have built a nuclear power plant without a containment vessel, which the Soviets did). Despite nuclear energy's exemplary safety record, arbitrary safety regulations have made nuclear energy almost prohibitively expensive.

So, faced with the rules & regulations embodied in points 1-3, the electric industry remains very highly regulated in a manner that results in high electricity prices.

The other part of the answer is the re-regulation that was part of “deregulation”. Sound confusing? What makes it confusing is that when the “deregulators” thought they were deregulating, they were actually re-regulating the industry by imposing an artificial industrial structure on the utilities. The “deregulators” developed the mistaken belief that they knew better than the utilities what business structure they should have. So, they broke apart the utilities, much in the same way AT&T was broken up by deregulators in 1984 (that action was also a mixed bag of “re-regulation” and partial deregulation, but that is another discussion). They forced the utilities to sell their power plants, and then they forced the utilities to allow others to use their distribution wires to deliver electricity to customers. That is why someone other than PSEG can “sell” you power even though they do not own the wire that delivers it to your house. Instead, PSEG owns the wire and you pay PSEG to have that other company’s power delivered over PSEG’s wire to your house. It is similar to how competing long distance companies would use Verizon’s local phone lines to provide you with long distance service.

The result of the artificial manipulation of the utilities’ corporate structures and business practices is that they operate in a manner less friendly to customers. Until the pseudo-deregulation of the 1990s, utilities were vertically integrated. They owned their power plants. That enabled them to offer power at predictable prices. However, by artificially separating utilities from their power plants, they were forced to buy power partially or completely in the wholesale power markets. In itself, that might have worked out okay, but regulators also forced the utilities to buy power under relatively short-term contracts. As a result, short-term price fluctuations get transmitted to customers.

To summarize the point about re-regulation, the artificially broken-up structure of utilities makes them less economically efficient, with the result that power prices are both higher and more volatile to customers.

Sound complicated? It is. Is it deregulation? No. Is it an unholy mess? Indeed, it is.

I will give a hint of what a proper government policy toward utilities should be: hands-off or laissez faire. In particular, utilities should get no legal monopoly protection, which they still have. Anyone should be free to start up a business selling electricity to customers. If this were permitted, we would likely see a lot of technological and business structural innovation, such that utilities would look a lot different than they do today. For example, real estate developers may build “mini-utilities” with small power plants to provide power to residential sub-divisions. Large commercial buildings may find it is economical to self-generate using gas-fired generators in their basement. It is even conceivable that individual homes may be powered by micro-generators the size of air conditioners. Large utilities are likely to still exist, but they will compete with each other, with the customer benefiting from lower rates. Or, large utilities may function largely as back-up sources of power to whom electricity customers would pay a fee for that service.

All of this innovation (and other types that remain to be conceived by a future entrepreneur) could happen if utilities were truly deregulated and politicians stayed away from the business of providing electricity. None of it will happen under the current structure, which mixes a few, tentative measures of market freedom with a whole lot of contradictory government control. Utilities today are arguably the most regulated private industry in the country, with a welter of overlapping local, state and federal authorities all having a hand in how they are run. With that many cooks in the kitchen, is it any wonder that the pies they make taste so awful and cost so much?

Bottom line for you personally: without knowing the details of the offers from other electricity suppliers, I suspect you are better off, in terms of hassle and probably even money, by staying with PSEG!

Bottom line for the country: we all pay too much for power and will continue to do so until true deregulation occurs. But, before that can happen, people need to draw true conclusions about the ersatz-deregulation that has been attempted already.

Sincerely yours,
GB

P.S. – There are other aspects to this complicated problem. One of them (to be discussed) is the price and profit controls on electric transmission lines that prevent enough new transmission lines from being built. The result is that the electric grid is ossified and subject to blackouts, and power is too expensive.

Nuclear Power: Hated by Environmentalists

The environmentalists' hatred for man and his technology is revealed by the reluctance of most environmentalists to embrace nuclear energy as a solution to the alleged global warming problem. Nuclear plants emit no carbon dioxide. Yet, environmentalists will rant and rave against nuclear power for all of its alleged harms, despite the fact that in the West not a single person has died from an emission of radiation into the environment by a nuclear power plant.

If the Nuclear Regulatory Commission were shut down, and all federal and state regulations were eliminated on nuclear power plants (and all other forms of electricity generation), I suspect that we would generate the majority of our electricity from nuclear power plants. Nuclear power has an inherent economy of scale because a very tiny amount of material can produce a huge amount of energy. Nuclear energy is very concentrated. This means that the cost of handling uranium and disposing of waste is very small in comparison to the amount of energy produced.

Contrast this with coal, where many 100-car-long trainloads of coal are needed to produce the amount of electricity that could be produced in a couple softballs' worth of uranium. Even with nuclear waste being radioactive, it is far easier and more environmentally "friendly" to dispose of nuclear waste than it is to dispose of coal waste, some of which inevitably gets disposed of in our lungs.

Only a wealthy, technologically advanced society can cheaply deploy a technology as advanced and beneficial as nuclear energy. Nuclear energy is clean and would be very cheap if it were not regulated. Yet all of the regulations on power generation -- including the pollution rules on fossil power -- just make our economy that much poorer, and less able to afford something as magnificent as nuclear power. So, ironically, by attempting to regulate in order to prevent pollution, such regulations have the opposite effect of making us poorer and therefore more likely to use polluting technologies, such as fossil fuels.

This point may not seem obvious, but observe that the worst polluting societies are the emerging Third World countries that are far poorer than ours. China, the former Soviet Union, developing parts of Africa and Asia, all have far more polluted air than we have in the West. Poverty and pollution go hand-in-hand.

As a final tidbit on nuclear power, I remember reading about an Alaskan village that wanted to install a tiny underground nuclear reactor for electricity. They believed it would be far cheaper to generate electricity through nuclear fission than it was to burn fuel oil that had to be arduously transported at great expense to their small village. I spoke to a nuclear engineer who told me that it was feasible to make such small nuclear reactors, but you would have to wait for "hell to freeze over" before the regulators would permit it. Given how much those Alaskan villagers have to pay for electricity, and how low they probably set their thermostats to save money, I imagine that they are already living in their frozen little hell.

Divided and Conquered

A Wall Street Journal article today ("In Climate Controversy, Industry Cedes Ground") shows how American industry is capitulating on the global warming issue. Captains of industry are falling all over themselves to proclaim their eagerness for controls on carbon dioxide emissions... as long as the controls hit other industries more than their own.

Duke Energy CEO James Rogers, long known as an "environmentalist" CEO, despite his helming some of the largest carbon dioxide producing coal-burning utilities in the country, best captures this attitude, when he said, "If you're not at the table when these negotiations are going on, you're going to be on the menu."

Rogers is doing his best to make sure that utilities other than his will be on that menu. He supports one form of carbon dioxide controls that will favor coal-burning utilities like his own and disadvantage, on a relative basis, other utilities that emit less carbon dioxide. Needless to say, the CEOs of those other utilities support their own carbon dioxide controls that especially favor their companies, in relative terms.

The article points out that the automobile manufacturers favor controls on the utilities and oil companies, and the oil companies favor controls on the automobile manufacturers and utilities. The utilities just want to make sure all sectors of the economy face controls, so that their industry is not singled out.

Amidst all this jockeying to beggar-thy-neighbor, almost no one is asking why carbon dioxide should be controlled at all. One of the only companies that was doing that, ExxonMobil, just threw in the towel after being threatened by a couple of senators [hat tip: Gus Van Horn].

One thing is clear amidst all this jockeying is that the beggars at the table will soon discover that they are the only ones on the menu.

Regulation Destroys

As an investment professional focused on the electric utility industry, the most regulated industry in the United States, I have accumulated numerous examples over the past 12 years of the inanity of regulation.

My experience, based on frequent personal interaction with both the regulators and the regulated, is that regulators, nearly to the person, are less competent than the people they regulate.

Imagine a 50-something highly educated and accomplished CEO of a $25 billion market capitalization company kowtowing to a 30-something attorney and political hack who happens to hold life-and-death regulatory power over his business. I've seen it, and variations of it, many times.

Executives of regulated companies have to flatter the regulators at conferences and meetings, spend countless hours educating the regulators on the simple basics of how their industry operates (so as to reduce the destructiveness of new regulations), and regularly second-guess their own actions for fear that a regulator or his political boss will be offended by them.

The results are several, the least of which is the many man-years of wasted time and unproductive employment at large corporations (e.g.: the full-time regulatory affairs teams at utilities and every other large corporation).

More ominously, innovations are delayed many years or never implemented at all. For example, in the utility world, numerous innovative technologies that could be deployed on the electric transmission infrastructure, such as high-speed Internet access, are never deployed because they require regulatory approval, and to get that the utilities must agree to "share" profits because, under the principle of regulation, the transmission lines really belong to the "utility ratepayers."

Even if the regulator is well-meaning (many of them actually are) and accomplished/intelligent (a rarity), by virtue of existing at the behest of politicians, they end up being destructive (which is why the only honest regulator would have to immediately quit his job). As an example, during the height of the California power crisis, a federal regulator appointed by Bush who publicly denounced price controls, imposed them anyway when he got a personal phone call from Bush. He knew the price controls would cause blackouts, and they did. He implemented them anyway.

A whole body of economic and philosophical literature provides good reasons why regulation is bad. Regulators are disinterested or "mis-interested" (corrupt), they are risk-averse, they cannot hold all the relevant information in their heads to regulate properly, etc.

I agree with all that, and add to it the image of a highly successful chief executive clapping with eager obsequiousness at the conclusion of a meaningless speech by a well-meaning but ignorant regulator who would never be hired by the utility she is regulating.

I hate to end on such a negative note, so I will add that quite a lot of innovation still gets pushed through eventually despite such regulation (even in the utility industry, thankfully). But the cost of the lost innovation and waste is enormous and growing.